Detroit Tigers Starting Pitching Woes

Heading into the 2025 season, the narrative about the Detroit Tigers centered on their struggles with hitting and strengths in pitching. They have flipped the script. The Tigers are currently on pace to score 781 runs this season, the most since 2013. Additionally, they remain on pace to cross the 200 home run mark for the 11th time in franchise history. The starting pitching started strong with Tarik Skubal, Reese Olson, and Casey Mize pitching at All-Star levels. Jack Flaherty and Jackson Jobe rounded out the rotation. Keider Montero made some spot starts, with nine starts, a 3-3 record, and a 3.94 ERA in the role.

Photo by Gary Shear on Unsplash

Tigers Starting Pitching Through July 15

Player	Starts	Wins	ERA	Strikeouts/Walks
Tarik Skubal	19	10	2.23	153/16
Reese Olson	11	4	2.95	55/22
Casey Mize	16	9	3.15	77/22
Jack Flaherty	19	5	4.65	124/40
Jackson Jobe	10	4	4.22	39/27
Combined	75/97	32	-	448/127

However, since the All-Star break, the starting pitching has struggled. Mize hasn't been able to keep up with his All-Star first-half play. Flaherty hasn't seen the improvements the team had hoped for, and Olson and Jobe are out for the season with injuries. Bring in additions Chris Paddack and Charlie Morton, who haven't solved any problems, and the Tigers are no closer to fixing their rotation problems. Sawyer Gibson-Long has been the Tigers' other spot starter and has posted an 8.31 ERA and a 0-2 record in his three starts.

Tigers Starting Pitching After July 15

Player	Starts	Wins	ERA	Strikeouts/Walks
Tarik Skubal	9	3	1.83	69/12
Casey Mize	8	4	5.59	33/10
Jack Flaherty	9	2	5.28	47/14
Charlie Morton	7	2	6.09	41/17
Chris Paddack	6	2	5.40	14/5
Combined	40/47	13	-	214/58

The Tigers have a 7-2 record in Skubal's starts since the break. That's what a Cy Young pitcher can do for a team. The Tigers are 23-24 since the break and 16-22 on days without Skubal as the starter, including a 4-12 record on days that Flaherty and Morton have started. The Tigers have a 10-4 record when Mize and Paddack started. On those days, the Tigers averaged 5.3 runs per game (75 total).

In the first half, all six starting pitchers kept their ERAs under 5, including four starters under 4. In the second half, the five starters aside from Skubal have ERAs over 5. ERA is no longer the be-all end-all statistic, but the comparison helps gauge the Tigers' problems. Here's one more look to help pinpoint the Tigers' struggles, looking at only Skubal, Mize, and Flaherty since the beginning of the losing streak that carried over from before the All-Star break.

Tigers Rotation Since July Losing Streaks

Player	Starts	Wins	ERA	Strikeouts/Walks
Tarik Skubal	10	3	2.25	74/14
Casey Mize	9	4	6.53	37/11
Jack Flaherty	10	2	5.12	54/16
Combined	29	9	-	165/41

This chart provides additional context for the emphasis that should be placed on Mize and Flaherty's struggles and their attribution to the team's struggles. Hitting and run scoring have generally been good. So has the bullpen. It's challenging to win many baseball games with just one starting pitcher keeping the team in games. If anything, these struggles should garner Skubal some MVP votes. In his last 20 outings, Skubal has allowed 16 earned runs across 64 innings. He's been dominant. The Tigers' other starters will need to step up to league average (4.18 ERA) if they hope to make any noise in the postseason.

Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, and company have provided enough offense to win. Greene has 32 homers and 102 RBIs, and Torkelson has 28 homers and 72 RBIs. Kerry Carpenter continues to rake, Zach McKinstry has been an elite utility player, and Wenceel Perez has an OPS over 800. Dillon Dingler has had a breakout year as well and has been leading the team's position players in WAR (McKinstry just overtook him). Colt Keith has improved in year two, and Gleyber Torres has been one of baseball's most underrated offseason additions. Players have slumped, but the overall trajectory continues to grow. Don't let the narratives drive your opinion. The Tigers' offense is fine.

(All stats provided by Baseball Reference)