The good news is that things can't get any worse, right? After Troy Weaver's tenure ended with the hiring of the new President of Basketball Operations, Trajan Langdon, the future of this team will hopefully be different than the last 15 years. While Weaver's tenure is the focus of attention (74-244), the Pistons have mostly been bad since trading Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson at the start of the 2009 season.
They've flirted with irrelevant mediocrity twice during the Andre Drummond saga, losing by an average of 8.5 points per game in a four-game sweep to Cleveland in 2016 and by 24 ppg in a four-game sweep to Milwaukee in 2019. I had forgotten how close the games were in 2016. The difference in those two series shows the lack of positive significance from the Blake Griffin for Tobias Harris and a first round pick trade.
So, the Blake Griffin stans out there should probably relax, considering the Pistons were a better team with Tobias Harris (and he has had a better career since the trade). This comparison completely neglects that the Pistons included a first-round draft pick that became Miles Bridges.
Griffin: 15 ppg, 3.7 apg, 5.17 rpg, 33.4 3pt% in 294 games
Harris: 18.1 ppg, 3.1 apg, 6.6 rpg, 38.5 3pt% in 513 games.
Bridges: 14.8 ppg, 2.5 apg, 6.0 rpg, 34.7 3pt% in 360 games.
So, why am I spending all this time reviewing an old trade in an article about current off-season plans? Why this example? I focused on this trade because it is emblematic of this issue the team needs to avoid if it hopes to return to contention.
Problem #1: Trading for the wrong stars
I am under no delusions that the Pistons must improve this roster's talent by adding veterans and star talent. The young players aren't developing without the correct supporting cast around them. The problem comes when they consider adding an aging veteran for too high of a price. Harris and Bridges have been contributors since the trade/entering the NBA. Griffin had one good season in Detroit. That trade put us further back on the timeline. For all of the high points of that season, was a first-round exit worth five more years of mediocrity? We could go as far back as the Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva signings or at least the Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings pairing to look at how choosing the wrong veteran pieces not only doesn't help the team win but delays the franchise's progress.
Problem #2: Trading away valuable assets for nothing
The Pistons have traded away the following players for nothing: Bruce Brown, Andre Drummond, Luke Kennard, Bojan Bogdanovic, Saddiq Bey, Alec Burks, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Khris Middleton. We could even throw Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in there because the Pistons let him walk instead of trading or resigning him. I'm likely forgetting even more bad decisions from over the years.
By giving away talented players for nothing in return (the make a trade to make a trade ideology), the Pistons have repeatedly set themselves back. If they want to change their fortunes, they'll likely need to trade some talented players, but if they don't get equal or greater value over a five-year span, we'll still be discussing how bad they are at the presumptive end of Langdon's tenure.
Problem #3: Failing to realize the value of draft capital
I don't know how to emphasize this more. Trading draft picks kills rebuilds. The Pistons have done so less of late but haven't drafted exceptionally well or at least well enough to change the team's fortunes (hard to do when you always draft fifth, even though you're the worst team two years in a row). Trading away picks to add a Blake Griffin or to get rid of a Ben Gordon is devastating to the long-term trajectory of an NBA franchise. I know people still like the Blake Griffin year, but I suspect those fans don't remember the Goin' to Work era, let alone the Bad Boys era. The reality is that the 2019 Pistons were lucky to have snuck into the playoffs.
Griffin was not talented enough to be the main piece on a contender. In his prime, Griffin could have been the second or third-best player on a contender. He played with Chris Paul all those years, and they never made it past the second round. Is that a coincidence or evidence that he was never a franchise centerpiece? I tend to believe the latter. Look at the Celtics. They collected draft capital and used it well. That's the framework.
I know fans are impatient and simply want to fix this overnight. I think there are pathways to quickly improving the team that delay any real chances of playoff competitiveness. The decisions coming up must be calculated accurately with their fit alongside Cade Cunningham in mind, or the Pistons timeline will be pushed back five more years. Ultimately, the Pistons have a hard road ahead, but it isn't impossible.
Step #1: Draft well
Many fans want the Pistons to trade the number five overall pick. The problem is that the pick has no unique value in a year without any consensus stars. If they trade the pick, can they add anyone of value? The issue comes with the mock drafts showing players all over the top 12. Is a team willing to trade up for any player in this draft? It doesn't appear so. So, the team has to find a diamond in the rough. Whether that's Matas Buzells, Donovan Clingan, or Dalton Knecht, the Pistons must find someone to help change the franchise's direction. I know it sounds like asking for a miracle, but that's what it takes sometimes. The Nuggets drafted Nikola Jokic in the second round. A team this bad needs to have some luck to turn their fortunes around, and since that apparently has to come with the fifth pick or later, they might as well start now.
Step #2: Add legitimate veteran talent
I liked Bogdanovic, but the Pistons need more. I'm not sure what kind of talent they'll be able to add through trade and free agency, but I believe adding someone like Tobias Harris or Michael Porter Jr. would speed up the rebuild without sacrificing the future. Many names are being floated around, and many look like a disaster to me. One such name is Kyle Kuzma. That is the single worst available option the Pistons could add. He is the definition of a box-score player. He'll fill out the box score, and the team will lose games. The Pistons can't afford to spend on those types of players going forward. Jimmy Butler would be perfect. But I don't see that happening either. So, whoever it is they add will need to be able to contribute through a system that runs through Cade while not costing too much young talent/draft capital.
Step #3: Add role players and collect draft picks
Someone like Andrew Wiggins could be addable if he comes with draft picks — not late second-round picks, either. Adding a veteran like him, who could have a bounce-back year with picks, is worth the cap hit. Malik Monk could be an option through free agency. I like the idea of adding Bruce Brown or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope instead. They present cheaper options for more defensive-minded players. I know the team will likely need to add a better defensive big as well. I worry about the chances of overspending in this market. That role could be filled by another trade that brings a draft pick along with it. The defense is the team's biggest issue. Adding more scorers won't make a difference if the team can't hold their opponents under 140.
Conclusion
Overall, I expect significant changes to come to Detroit. I worry that the team won't learn from the past and make poor decisions that will make it nominally better this season and worse five years from now. Langdon must be perfect and get lucky to turn this ship around. I don't know which players might help expedite the turnaround, but I see the danger of selecting the wrong additions. How many times can a single franchise pick the wrong players?
Maybe the law of percentages will finally help this team as they commence yet another rebuild. Will they find their diamond in the rough and add some key veterans to quickly improve the team or will they draft another bust and add box-score stuffers as they continue to lose more games? Let me know what you think!
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