So, earlier this year, I predicted the upside being the playoffs and the downside being 30 wins. I chastised the critics for saying the Pistons would be bottom-dwellers. Well, they look right and I look like an idiot; however, I did say that their possible downfall would be due to a combination of two factors: injuries and stunted development. In addition, I don't think Coach Casey has done a stellar job with the rotation this season. The meeting of these three factors has created the perfect storm for a miserable Pistons season.
Injuries
Jerami Grant, Kelly Olynk, Cade Cunningham, Killian Hayes, and Isaiah Stewart have all missed significant times and dealt with injuries affecting their play. Any team that has this many rotation players out is going to have problems. When Cade and Killian are healthy, they have both looked great.
Lately, Cunningham is really coming into his own. It is a shame that we didn't get to see these two healthy and developing together from day 1 of training camp. The injuries have really delayed their growth and prevented the front office and coaching staff from seeing how well they can work together. I still believe in the pairing, but it won't matter if Hayes can't stay in the lineup.
Stewart looks a bit slow from his offseason injury and is still finding his way as a starter this year. He is also struggling from being undersized as a center, and without his athleticism on full display, the issue is exacerbated.
The Pistons have really missed Mason Plumlee's size this year. His ability to at least body guys up was overlooked when the Pistons essentially swapped him for Kelly Olynk.
As far as Olynk and Grant go, the Pistons have and will miss their scoring. I'm still not sold that Olynk's offense is a great enough improvement for what the Pistons lost defensively by swapping him in for Plumlee. Plumlee's defense has been sorely missed.
Stunted Growth
While common wisdom says that we should focus on Saddiq Bey's troubles, I actually find Jerami Grant's more concerning. This season, the scout teams have figured him out. If he tries his hesitation crossover pull-up, get up into his chest, and if he tries to go to the basket, body him up. While he is still scoring quite a bit, he is not as efficient this season, and often seems predictable. The next step in his development is to know when he has a shot or not. The decision-making and passing needed to develop more to address the scouting reports, but so far that has not come along.
Bey's regression this season has been disappointing. The good news is that he is still making good passes, playing good defense, and rebounding. This would be well enough if the Pistons weren't counting on him as a second or third option on offense.
I still think he'll work his way out of this, and we'll all chalk this up as a sophomore slump, but maybe it is time for Casey to try the Kennard tactics from a few seasons ago. Casey benched Kennard on multiple occasions prior to him playing his best basketball in Detroit. Kennard finished the 2019 season strong and played well through the playoffs and into the next season.
Stewart and Hayes' development seems to be stunted more by injuries, so we'll wait to see how that pans out, but Saben Lee has looked great.
Rotations
The fact that Saben Lee hasn't been able to crack the rotation this season has been ridiculous. I've been calling for him to get back into the rotation all season. I generally applaud Coach Casey, but why the hell Cory Joseph and Trey Lyles have been staples of the rotation is beyond me. Those two veterans are not part of any future in which the Pistons are a contending team. Playing them now is a waste of developmental opportunities. Lee and Luka Garza could be out there. Maybe we lose more games, but that doesn't seem possible at this point.
The biggest knock on Garza has been his defense. He needs to figure out how to adjust to the NBA speed. As long as you are losing most games, why not give him the opportunity to see if he can figure it out.
Hamidou Diallo took forever to get into the rotation. I thought he should have been playing all along. Perhaps, I was wrong, and he should be playing ahead of Josh Jackson, but I'm still not sold on Frank Jackson.
Occasionally, Frank Jackson heats up in a hurry, and the Pistons are in desperate need of offense. Still, when Frank Jackson is not shooting well, he is essentially just a body on the floor. He is not a good defensive player.
He and Cory Joseph play yabadabadoo defense. They run around frantically waving their arms. That works against high school teams. NBA players aren't phased by that style of play; they pass fake and go by them. Cory Joseph shouldn't see the floor again this season. I wish the same could be applied to Lyles. Lyles is a black hole on offense. He also occasionally catches fire but doesn't really do much else for the Pistons.
Now, I'm just some guy watching basketball on his couch, and I'm not saying that these changes would lead to more wins. I'm saying that what is happening now isn't working and doesn't develop young talent. If the Pistons are going to suck, suck with a purpose.