While there has been plenty for fans to gripe about with the 2024 Detroit Tigers, the young players, led by first-time All-Stars Tarik Skubal and Riley Greene, have been on a tear lately. Reese Olson joins Skubal as a young pitcher at the top of the staff, along with Wenceel Perez and Colt Keith in the lineup. Additionally, Casey Mize, Justyn-Henry Malloy, and Parker Meadows have shown positive signs lately. Throw in a few veterans having solid seasons, including Jack Flaherty, Carson Kelly, Matt Vierling, and Andy Ibanez, and the Tigers have the beginnings of a baseball team.
Young Pieces
Following a weekend sweep of the Cincinnati Reds (the Tigers second of the year), the Tigers have provided some optimism. President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris said this team, as constructed, would have hot streaks and cold streaks. The emphasis on giving young players more at-bats has begun to pay dividends, but no one should panic if the team hits another cold streak. This up-and-down season is part of a bigger payoff. It's not fun watching players learn on the fly (Justyn-Henry-Malloy) and, even worse, watching them sink or swim (Akil Badoo and Ryan Kreidler).
However, seeing Greene and Skubal elevate their games to All-Star levels is fun. Skubal has a 2.37 ERA and a league-best .900 WHIP. On Sunday, he threw seven innings with a career-high 13 strikeouts in a one-run, three-hit day. Keith, Perez, and Olson have elevated their games lately, too. Since May 1 Keith is hitting .291 with an OPS of .790 and seven home runs and eight doubles. In his 70 Major League appearances, Perez has hit .258 with an OPS of .715. Olson started the season strong and had a few rough outings recently but followed them up with three excellent showings, posting a 2.50 ERA and an opposing batting average of .185.
The developmental approach is beginning to take hold. This path to team-building will never be a popular one because, more often than not, players don't develop into franchise cornerstones or even solid MLB players. The key is to have the patience to develop players and have an organization willing to acquire as many promising prospects as possible until it's time to go for a title.
While much focus is on the players above, don't count out Malloy, Mize, and Meadows (small sample size). Malloy is hitting .350 with two home runs in his last six games. This sample size is small but the power and approach are there. Malloy has extra-base power and draws walks. Mize has had highs and lows this season coming off of his injury. Lately, however, he's showing signs of a return to form. In his last five starts, he has posted 3.24 ERA with 20 strikeouts and five walks. While he continues to struggles with giving up contact, the command of the strike zone should lead to better results. Meadows returned from Toledo this weekend and went 4-11, including a home run in his first at bat. Hopefully, his injury is not severe. While these are all small sample sizes, the important thing to note is the progress tredning upward. These players needed time, and the product has begun to follow the process.
Good Veteran Contributions
Jack Flaherty looks like a stroke of genius on Harris's part. Flaherty has a 3.24 ERA with 115 strikouts and 14 walks. Kelly, Vierling, and Ibanez have also had strong stretches this year. From big home runs to incredible plays in the field, they've had contributions that probably go under the radar because the team has struggled.
Setbacks
The setbacks are clear: the offseason addition misses (Mark Canha, Gio Urshela, and Kenta Maeda), Matt Manning and Spencer Torkelson's regressions, and Kerry Carpenter's health.
Mark Canha and Gio Urshela had a better series against Cincinnati, but their expected roles versus their real contributions reveal much of the Tigers problems. Canha is hitting .198 with an OPS of .531 since May 1 and Urshela is hitting .148 since June 21. The organization had clear hopes for these two to carry a bigger load to take pressure off the developing bats, leading to some prospects being baptized by fire to varying degrees of success.
Kenta Maeda's performance this season has been disastrous. Maeda has 6.71 ERA and an opponent OPS of .871. While his struggles are clear, the situation is actually a larger indictment on Matt Manning. The team must have major concerns with his development and approach to have kept him in Toledo this long, opting to call up Keider Montero (6.1 inning and two earned runs in his last outing) for the last three spot starts instead of Manning (4.96 ERA in Toledo). However, at this point, it may be time to call up someone because Maeda's starts can be preordained as losses.
Spencer Torkelson's regression is an absolute disaster for the Tigers. Fans and media that celebrated his necessary demotion to Toledo missed the severity of the situation. The 2020 number-one overall pick had a stellar 2023 campaign (31 homeruns, 34 doubles, and 94 RBIs). Then, this season, he struggled mightily. Hopefully, some improvements will be made in Toledo. He his currently hitting .254 with some power in Toledo. Take those results with a grain of salt. Minor league pitching is precisely that: minor league pitching. Tork will need to address the underlying concerns of his approach to the plate (getting started too late and letting pitchers steal strike one).
The Recipe: Consistency and Time
Not popular, but true. The Tigers have the makings of a legitimate contender... just not this year. Going forward, the team will need more luck and will have to address the consistency problem in the offseason. Vierling could usurp Zach McKinstry as the utility man, again opening up a spot at third. Could this be another chance to insert a young player into the lineup (Jace Jung?), or should the Tigers add a veteran to bring stability to the lineup? Will the Tigers address first base and move on from Torkelson? Will Javier Baez return from his rehab assignment in Toledo and fill in the role of a veteran who takes the pressure off the other players? These will all be answered by the end of this season. If the young players continue to improve, next season could see a few more (emphasis on a few) and fill in the rest with more experienced batters.
One question that will be answered sooner than later is that of the trade deadline. While the Tigers should be sellers, does that make sense for developmental purposes? Flaherty will likely be dealt at the deadline, but what about Kelly? Should the team part with the catcher and give those at-bats to Jake Rogers and another prospect (Dillon Dingler)? At some point, the developmental approach can topple rather than teeter. We've seen glimpses, but if the team trades several key contributors, they could see a sharp decline in the remainder of the season.
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